The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has approved Novig to run a federally regulated sports prediction market, giving the company a path into U.S. event trading under national oversight rather than state gambling frameworks alone. Novig isn’t a traditional sportsbook, it’s peer-to-peer, with users trading contracts on sports outcomes directly against each other, fitting the CFTC’s definition of a prediction market where real-world events determine payouts.
This matters because sports wagering in the U.S. is usually subject to a tangle of state regulations, but Novig’s CFTC approval puts it firmly in the federal derivatives regime. That sharpens the contrast with state frameworks and highlights a mounting jurisdictional contest, especially after the CFTC sued New Mexico earlier this month over its crackdown on sports prediction markets. Federal approval means prediction contracts like these are monitored under commodity and derivatives law alongside gambling rules.
Novig now joins Kalshi, the best-known regulated venue in the category, which posted more than $1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume, a 27-fold increase from a year earlier. Even mainstream brokers like Robinhood have distributed sports prediction contracts through Kalshi, signalling that this market is scaling fast. The next step for Novig is to translate approval into real liquidity and user demand. The risk is that further legal challenges or contract limits could slow that growth. For now, Novig’s entry adds to the evidence that prediction markets are becoming a regulated financial product in their own right.